ING
2026 FX Outlook
LIVE10 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/SEK
European fiscal beneficiary with upside
ING Forecast Path
vs Prior ForecastCurrent target: 10.3Prior target: 10.5Revision: -1.9%
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Riksbank policy
European growth
Housing market
Export competitiveness
Equity fund flows
Fiscal spillover
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
GSBullish8.90
JPMBullish8.83
BARCModerately Bullish8.80
MSBullish8.75
MUFGBullish8.70
BofABullish8.65
DBStrongly Bullish8.50
INGBullish8.44
Key Issues for 2026
1.SEK benefits from European fiscal expansion spillover
2.Riksbank near end of cutting cycle, reducing downside pressure
3.Swedish housing market stabilizing after 2022-23 correction
4.Export sector competitive at current undervalued SEK levels
5.Capital inflows to Swedish equities supportive
6.Low starting point provides significant appreciation runway
Risk Scenarios
Bullish10.00-10.20
Eurozone growth boom, Riksbank hikes, capital inflows surge
Base case10.30-10.50
Gradual SEK appreciation, Riksbank holds, growth recovery
Bearish11.00-11.20
European recession, Riksbank cuts further, risk-off
Analysis Summary
SEK should benefit from improved European growth momentum, fiscal expansion, and attractive valuations. The Riksbank is likely near the end of its cutting cycle, reducing a key headwind. EUR/SEK should trend lower through 2026.