Goldman Sachs
Global FX Strategy 2026
LIVE10 January 2026USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesModerately Bullish
USD/CHF
Safe haven status persists, gradual USD/CHF decline
GS Forecast Path
vs Prior ForecastCurrent target: 0.76Prior target: 0.78Revision: -2.6%
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Safe haven demand
SNB policy
Reserve diversification
Geopolitical risk
EUR/CHF dynamics
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMTactically Bearish0.80
INGNeutral0.78
BARCNeutral0.78
GSModerately Bullish0.76
MUFGModerately Bearish0.76
BofAModerately Bullish0.76
MSBearish0.75
DBBullish0.75
Key Issues for 2026
1.CHF benefits from USD weakness as traditional safe haven alternative
2.SNB cautious on rate cuts, preserving some rate advantage vs EUR
3.Reserve diversification flows continue to support CHF
4.Geopolitical hedging demand elevated
5.EUR/CHF range-bound as European growth offsets CHF strength
Risk Scenarios
Very bullish0.72-0.74
Global risk-off, geopolitical escalation, USD crisis
Bullish - GS base case0.76
Gradual USD decline, SNB holds, reserve diversification continues
Neutral0.80-0.82
USD stabilizes, SNB cuts rates, EUR/CHF rises
Analysis Summary
Moderately bullish CHF as safe haven demand persists and SNB remains cautious on intervention. Swiss franc benefits from geopolitical hedging demand and reserve diversification flows. EUR/CHF downside limited by European growth improvement.