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Bank of America

FX Outlook 2026: Structural Dollar Headwinds

LIVE5 December 2025USD bearish
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USD/USD

Bearish USD on structural twin deficit headwinds and narrowing rate differential

Bearish

Key Drivers

Twin deficit deterioration
Fed easing cycle
European fiscal expansion
Global growth rotation

All Firm Targets (Dec '26)

Analysis Summary

Bearish USD on structural twin deficit headwinds and narrowing rate differentials. Most USD weakness expected after Q1 as European fiscal stimulus gains traction and global growth rotation accelerates. DXY targeting 93.5 by year-end.