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Bank of America

FX Outlook 2026: Structural Dollar Headwinds

LIVE5 December 2025USD bearish
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USD/TRY

TRY carry remains attractive but depreciation path continues. Authorities' manag

Neutral

BofA Forecast Path

Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison

Key Drivers

Managed depreciation
High carry offset
CBRT policy
Inflation trajectory

All Firm Targets (Dec '26)

JPMBullish53.50
DBNeutral52.50
MS52.00
MUFG52.00
BARCModerately Bullish51.50
BofANeutral51.00
ING50.50
GS50.00

Analysis Summary

TRY carry remains attractive but depreciation path continues. Authorities' managed depreciation policy limits upside. Total return positive but spot will weaken. Prefer options-based carry extraction.

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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