Bank of America
FX Outlook 2026: Structural Dollar Headwinds
LIVE5 December 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/SEK
Rate-sensitive recovery play
BofA Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Rate sensitivity
Riksbank near terminal
European growth
Housing market
Valuations
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
GSBullish8.90
JPMBullish8.83
BARCModerately Bullish8.80
MSBullish8.75
MUFGBullish8.70
BofABullish8.65
DBStrongly Bullish8.50
INGBullish8.44
Key Issues for 2026
1.Swedish economy most rate-sensitive in G10
2.Riksbank easing cycle nearing end
3.European fiscal stimulus benefits Sweden
4.Housing market stabilization underway
5.Valuations attractive after years of weakness
Analysis Summary
SEK stands to benefit from European fiscal stimulus spillovers and Sweden's own rate-sensitive recovery. Valuations remain cheap and the Riksbank's easing cycle is nearing its end, removing a key headwind.