Bank of America
FX Outlook 2026: Structural Dollar Headwinds
LIVE5 December 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesNeutral
NZD/USD
Recovery capped by low yield
BofA Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
RBNZ terminal rate
Growth recovery
Housing market
AUD/NZD spread
Dairy prices
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
INGBullish0.6200
DBModerately Bullish0.6200
MSNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6100
BofANeutral0.6000
GSModerately Bullish0.6000
MUFGNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6000
JPMNeutral0.5900
BARCNeutral0.5900
Key Issues for 2026
1.RBNZ deep easing makes NZD a low yielder
2.Growth recovery underway but priced in
3.Housing market rebound supports confidence
4.AUD/NZD upside as RBA vs RBNZ diverges
Analysis Summary
NZD recovery potential is capped by RBNZ's deep easing cycle, leaving it as a low yielder. Growth recovery is underway but positioning is already pricing improvement. Prefer AUD over NZD for commodity exposure.