Bank of America
FX Outlook 2026: Structural Dollar Headwinds
LIVE5 December 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/NOK
Scandi star: yield and fiscal advantage
BofA Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Yield advantage
European fiscal spillover
Oil prices
Fiscal strength
Valuation support
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
GSBullish9.50
JPMBullish9.42
MSBullish9.40
MUFGBullish9.40
BARCBullish9.40
BofABullish9.35
DBStrongly Bullish9.15
INGVery Bullish9.10
Key Issues for 2026
1.Highest G10 yield outside antipodeans
2.Norwegian fiscal space unmatched globally
3.European fiscal expansion benefits NOK
4.Oil prices supportive at current levels
5.Valuations cheap on multiple metrics
Analysis Summary
NOK is our top Scandi pick. High carry, cheap valuations, and strong fiscal position create a compelling backdrop. European fiscal expansion provides additional tailwinds, with EUR/NOK targeting 9.35 as Norway's oil-adjusted fundamentals shine.