Bank of America
FX Outlook 2026: Structural Dollar Headwinds
LIVE5 December 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/MXN
MXN benefits from nearshoring flows, high carry, and improving fiscal dynamics.
BofA Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Nearshoring flows
High carry
USMCA resolution
Fiscal improvement
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish18.25
INGBullish17.80
BARCBullish17.70
GSBullish17.50
MUFGBullish17.50
MSBullish17.40
BofABullish17.30
DBBullish17.20
Analysis Summary
MXN benefits from nearshoring flows, high carry, and improving fiscal dynamics. USMCA resolution expected to remove uncertainty premium. Long MXN funded by JPY or CHF for carry harvesting.