Global FX: Cease-fire, the dollar, DM/EM FX impact, IMF round-up
JPM highlights a renewed case for carry amid cease-fire optimism and IMF spring meeting takeaways, with the dollar outlook as a key driver for DM and EM FX.
What the desk is arguing
J.P. Morgan strategists argue that the dollar's outlook and renewed carry trade opportunities are central themes from the IMF/WB spring meetings. They see potential for carry across regions as geopolitical tensions ease, but stress the importance of positioning for FX volatility.
Where it sits in our coverage
We currently have no internal coverage data on the relevant currencies. However, our firm-level consensus for the dollar index shows no strong directional bias, with a neutral stance amid mixed signals.
How other firms see it
Not available.
Key takeaways
- 01JPM sees renewed case for carry across DM and EM FX.
- 02Dollar outlook remains key; IMF meetings underscored diverging growth paths.
- 03Cease-fire developments could shift risk appetite and FX flows.
Market implications
Positive for carry trades, especially in EM high-yielders. Dollar could weaken if risk appetite improves, but resilient US economy may limit downside.
Risks to this view
Renewed geopolitical tensions, hawkish central bank surprises, or a sharp risk-off move could reverse carry gains and strengthen the dollar.
This week, our global FX & EM strategists discuss the outlook for the dollar and the renewed case for carry across regions. We also discuss FX-relevant takeaways from the IMF/WB spring meetings. This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2026.
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