Global Commodities: A week of commodity whiplash
JPMorgan analysts note that commodity markets experienced extreme volatility over the past week, with metals hitting record highs before sharply reversing, while oil and gas are subject to weather and policy uncertainty.
What the desk is arguing
JPMorgan analysts highlight that commodities saw sharp swings this past week, with metals hitting record highs on Thursday before erasing gains in the largest daily declines in years. Oil and gas markets continue to grapple with weather-related disruptions and policy uncertainty, complicating the fundamental outlook.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our internal coverage has no direct view on commodities today, but we note that the volatility in metals and energy aligns with our broader theme of heightened macro uncertainty. We maintain a neutral outlook overall, with a slight bearish tilt on oil given demand concerns.
How other firms see it
No other firms explicitly cited in the source.
Key takeaways
- 01Metals hit record highs before experiencing sharp reversals, largest daily declines in years.
- 02Oil and gas face headwinds from weather and policy uncertainty.
- 03JPMorgan's podcast discusses price fundamentals, risk premia, and weather impacts.
Market implications
For FX markets, commodity-linked currencies (e.g., AUD, CAD, NOK, CLP) may see heightened sensitivity to further swings in metals and energy prices. A sustained decline in metals could weigh on commodity exporters, while oil volatility keeps energy-exposed currencies on edge.
Risks to this view
Further sharp reversals in commodity prices, adverse weather events impacting supply, or unforeseen policy changes could amplify FX volatility.
In this episode, JPMorgan analysts digest yet another week of market volatility in commodities. The metals hit records on Thursday, but only to backtrack and slide by largest amounts seen in years. Oil and gas, on the other hand, grappled with weather and policy uncertainty.
We discuss price fundamentals, risk premia and even weather to try and explain these dynamics. Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research Otar Dgebuadze, Global Natural Gas Research This podcast was recorded on Jan 30, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.
Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5187665-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5186727-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5184139-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © YYYY JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P.
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Sources & References
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