Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/ZAR
ZAR is significantly cheap vs commodity terms of trade. Structural improvement i
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Commodity terms of trade
Power supply improvement
SARB cautious easing
Cheap valuations
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish16.25
INGBullish16.25
BARCBullish16.10
GSBullish16.00
MUFGBullish16.00
BofABullish15.80
MSBullish15.75
DBStrongly Bullish15.50
Analysis Summary
ZAR is significantly cheap vs commodity terms of trade. Structural improvement in power supply removes a key drag. SARB to ease cautiously, maintaining carry. Express via ZAR/JPY or short EUR/ZAR for conviction.