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Barclays

FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn

LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
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USD/USD

Moderately bearish USD -- the turn is underway but will be gradual. US growth re

Moderately Bearish

Key Drivers

Fed easing cycle
Twin deficit headwinds
US growth resilience
European fiscal stimulus
Global rebalancing

All Firm Targets (Dec '26)

Analysis Summary

Moderately bearish USD -- the turn is underway but will be gradual. US growth resilience limits downside vs more aggressive calls. DXY 95.0 target reflects measured depreciation. Selectivity key in choosing USD shorts.