Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesModerately Bullish
USD/SEK
Regional recovery with yield headwind
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Riksbank policy
Regional growth
Fiscal differentiation
Rate sensitivity
Equity flows
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
GSBullish8.90
JPMBullish8.83
BARCModerately Bullish8.80
MSBullish8.75
MUFGBullish8.70
BofABullish8.65
DBStrongly Bullish8.50
INGBullish8.44
Key Issues for 2026
1.Benefits from European fiscal expansion and regional growth
2.Riksbank easing cycle makes SEK a lower-yielder
3.Rate sensitivity amplifies moves in either direction
4.Equity outflows remain a persistent drag
5.Prefer NOK over SEK within Scandinavia
Analysis Summary
SEK benefits from regional recovery and fiscal differentiation but Riksbank easing and low yields create a drag. Rate sensitivity makes SEK a leveraged play on European growth. Prefer NOK over SEK in Scandinavia. EUR/SEK to grind lower.