Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesNeutral
NZD/USD
Recovery potential but low yield limits
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
RBNZ rate path
Growth recovery
Housing market
Immigration
Low yield headwind
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
INGBullish0.6200
DBModerately Bullish0.6200
MSNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6100
GSModerately Bullish0.6000
MUFGNeutral to Slightly Bullish0.6000
BofANeutral0.6000
BARCNeutral0.5900
JPMNeutral0.5900
Key Issues for 2026
1.Growth recovery expected to be strongest in G10 from low base
2.RBNZ has cut 300bp making NZD a low yielder
3.Housing market recovery could lift sentiment
4.Immigration cycle turning positive
5.Prefer AUD over NZD -- express via long AUD/NZD
Analysis Summary
NZD recovery potential is significant but low yield status following 300bp of RBNZ cuts creates vulnerability. Growth recovery expected to be strongest in G10 but carry headwinds limit upside. Prefer AUD over NZD in Antipodea.