Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/NOK
Yield and oil support bullish case
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Norges Bank policy
Oil prices
European fiscal spillover
Capital flows
Yield advantage
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
GSBullish9.50
JPMBullish9.42
BARCBullish9.40
MSBullish9.40
MUFGBullish9.40
BofABullish9.35
DBStrongly Bullish9.15
INGVery Bullish9.10
Key Issues for 2026
1.Highest yield in G10 with Norges Bank on hold
2.Oil prices stable at supportive levels
3.European fiscal spillover benefits Norwegian economy
4.Cheap valuations on multiple metrics
5.Improving capital flow dynamics
Analysis Summary
NOK to benefit from oil price stability, European fiscal spillover, and Norges Bank's higher-for-longer stance. Valuations remain cheap relative to fundamentals. Improving flow picture and fiscal space support sustained appreciation through 2026.