Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesModerately Bullish
USD/MXN
MXN benefits from carry and nearshoring but USMCA uncertainty caps gains. Prefer
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Carry appeal
Nearshoring
USMCA uncertainty
USD weakness
Fiscal stability
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish18.25
INGBullish17.80
BARCModerately Bullish17.70
GSBullish17.50
MUFGBullish17.50
MSBullish17.40
BofABullish17.30
DBBullish17.20
Analysis Summary
MXN benefits from carry and nearshoring but USMCA uncertainty caps gains. Prefer via JPY-funded carry. USD/MXN to 17.70.