Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesNeutral
USD/CHF
Funder not fighter
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
SNB policy
Safe haven demand
Carry funding role
EUR/CHF dynamics
Risk sentiment
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMTactically Bearish0.80
BARCNeutral0.78
INGNeutral0.78
GSModerately Bullish0.76
MUFGModerately Bearish0.76
BofAModerately Bullish0.76
MSBearish0.75
DBBullish0.75
Key Issues for 2026
1.CHF caught between safe haven and low yield
2.SNB near floor limits further easing
3.EUR/CHF rangebound as both appreciate vs USD
4.Best used as carry funder rather than directional trade
5.Swiss current account surplus provides floor
Analysis Summary
CHF stuck between safe haven demand (supportive) and low yield drag (headwind). EUR/CHF range-bound as both currencies strengthen vs USD. SNB near floor but not expected to cut further. CHF a better funder than outright short.