Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesNeutral
USD/BRL
BRL carry is attractive but October presidential elections create significant tw
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Presidential elections Oct 2026
BCB hawkish
Fiscal concerns
Election volatility
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish5.55
BARCNeutral5.20
GSBullish5.20
ING5.20
MUFGModerately Bullish5.15
MSModerately Bullish5.10
BofAModerately Bullish5.10
DBBullish5.05
Analysis Summary
BRL carry is attractive but October presidential elections create significant two-way risk. Prefer options-based exposure rather than outright. Fiscal concerns persist but BCB's hawkish stance provides near-term support.