Barclays

FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn

LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish

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USD/BRL

Name: Investment Bank FX Research Directory
Creator: FX Bank Forecast
License: https://fxbankforecast.com/terms
Keywords: bank FX research, investment bank reports, FX strategy, institutional research directory, bank forecasts

BRL carry attractive but October elections create binary risk. Prefer options ex

Neutral

BARC Forecast Path

Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison

Key Drivers

October elections

High carry

Fiscal uncertainty

BCB policy

Election volatility

All Firm Targets (Dec '26)

JPMBullish5.55

BARCNeutral5.20

GSBullish5.20

ING5.20

MUFGModerately Bullish5.15

MSModerately Bullish5.10

BofAModerately Bullish5.10

DBBullish5.05

Analysis Summary

BRL carry attractive but October elections create binary risk. Prefer options exposure to manage tails. Fiscal trajectory uncertain.

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