Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
AUD/USD
Commodity bull with RBA support
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
RBA rate path
Base metals demand
Pension fund hedging
Credit cycle
China growth
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
INGVery Bullish0.7300
DBBullish0.7200
MSBullish0.7100
GSBullish0.7000
MUFGBullish0.7000
BofABullish0.7000
BARCBullish0.6900
JPMBullish0.6800
Key Issues for 2026
1.RBA higher-for-longer on elevated inflation keeps AUD as G10 high yielder
2.Green transition metals demand provides structural commodity tailwind
3.Pension fund hedge ratio structural rise adds supportive flows
4.Credit growth at post-GFC highs indicates domestic strength
5.Technical setup most constructive in G10 -- inverse H&S forming
Analysis Summary
AUD is a compelling long on carry, commodity exposure, and RBA higher-for-longer stance. Green transition metals demand provides structural support. Pension fund hedge ratio rise adds a supportive flow dynamic. Technical setup favors breakout above 0.66.