Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesModerately Bullish
USD/TRY
TRY carry is our top EM income trade. Managed depreciation keeps spot weakening
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
High carry
Managed depreciation
CBRT commitment
Inflation deceleration
JPY funding advantage
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish53.50
DBNeutral52.50
MS52.00
MUFG52.00
BARCModerately Bullish51.50
BofANeutral51.00
ING50.50
GS50.00
Analysis Summary
TRY carry is our top EM income trade. Managed depreciation keeps spot weakening but total return remains attractive. Prefer JPY-funded TRY carry for maximum differential.