Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/SEK
European recovery beta
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Manufacturing exposure
Riksbank policy
Housing market
European growth
Valuations
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
GSBullish8.90
JPMBullish8.83
BARCBullish8.80
MSBullish8.75
MUFGBullish8.70
BofABullish8.65
DBStrongly Bullish8.50
INGBullish8.44
Key Issues for 2026
1.Manufacturing leverage to German spending
2.Riksbank nearing terminal rate
3.Rate sensitivity means housing recovery supports
4.Valuations attractive
5.Prefer NOK for yield but SEK for growth beta
Analysis Summary
SEK benefits from European recovery and rate sensitivity. Riksbank nearing terminal removes a headwind. Valuations cheap. Prefer NOK over SEK for yield advantage but both should appreciate meaningfully.