Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
USD/NOK
Commodity plus Europe double play
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
Commodity prices
European fiscal
Yield advantage
Norges Bank policy
Valuations
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
GSBullish9.50
JPMBullish9.42
BARCBullish9.40
MSBullish9.40
MUFGBullish9.40
BofABullish9.35
DBStrongly Bullish9.15
INGVery Bullish9.10
Key Issues for 2026
1.High G10 yield provides carry appeal
2.Oil prices supportive at current levels
3.European fiscal expansion direct benefit
4.Norges Bank on hold supports
5.Valuations cheap on multiple metrics
Analysis Summary
NOK benefits from commodity demand, European fiscal spillover, and high yield. Oil prices supportive at current levels. EUR/NOK targeting 9.40 represents meaningful appreciation. Prefer NOK as a commodity + Europe expression.