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FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn

LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish

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GBP/USD

Name: Investment Bank FX Research Directory
Creator: FX Bank Forecast
License: https://fxbankforecast.com/terms
Keywords: bank FX research, investment bank reports, FX strategy, institutional research directory, bank forecasts

Sterling renaissance -- our top G10 pick

Strongly Bullish

BARC Forecast Path

Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison

Key Drivers

Fiscal clarity

BoE rate path

Growth resilience

EUR/GBP dynamics

Carry advantage

All Firm Targets (Dec '26)

MSStrongly Bullish1.4700

DBBullish1.4200

BARCStrongly Bullish1.4100

MUFGModerately Bullish1.4000

BofABullish1.4000

JPMTactically Bullish1.3600

GSModerately Bullish1.3600

INGModerately Bullish1.3600

Key Issues for 2026

1.Fiscal clarity post-budget removes Truss premium

2.BoE hawkish relative to G10 peers

3.UK growth resilience surprising to the upside

4.Carry appeal strong vs EUR and USD

5.GBP outperformance vs EUR expected -- EUR/GBP to 0.86

Risk Scenarios

Super bullish1.45+

UK growth accelerates, global risk-on, BoE holds

Bullish base1.39-1.41

Fiscal clarity sustained, gradual BoE easing

Bearish1.25-1.28

Fiscal crisis, growth collapse, BoE emergency cuts

Analysis Summary

GBP is our top G10 pick. Fiscal clarity, BoE hawkish hold, and UK growth resilience create a uniquely supportive backdrop. GBP/USD 1.41 target reflects both USD weakness and GBP-specific strength. EUR/GBP to decline below 0.86 as sterling outperforms.

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.