Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesNeutral
USD/CHF
Caught between safe haven and SNB
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
SNB policy
European growth
Safe-haven flows
Reserve diversification
Swiss current account
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMTactically Bearish0.80
BARCNeutral0.78
INGNeutral0.78
GSModerately Bullish0.76
MUFGModerately Bearish0.76
BofAModerately Bullish0.76
MSBearish0.75
DBBullish0.75
Key Issues for 2026
1.Safe-haven demand supports CHF in risk-off episodes
2.SNB prefers weaker CHF but limited room to cut further
3.European growth recovery creates EUR/CHF upside pressure
4.Reserve diversification into CHF from central banks provides structural bid
5.Swiss home bias shift could weaken CHF over time
Analysis Summary
CHF caught between safe-haven demand and SNB's desire to limit appreciation. Reserve diversification flows support CHF but European growth recovery creates headwinds via EUR/CHF upside. Net neutral stance with range-bound trading expected around 0.78-0.82.