Barclays

FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn

LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish

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USD/CAD

Name: Investment Bank FX Research Directory
Creator: FX Bank Forecast
License: https://fxbankforecast.com/terms
Keywords: bank FX research, investment bank reports, FX strategy, institutional research directory, bank forecasts

Mixed signals, USD-driven

Neutral

BARC Forecast Path

Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison

Key Drivers

USD direction

USMCA outcome

Oil prices

BoC policy

Housing market

All Firm Targets (Dec '26)

JPMModerately Bearish1.42

BARCNeutral1.36

GSModerately Bullish1.35

BofAModerately Bearish1.35

INGModerately Bullish1.34

MSModerately Bullish1.34

MUFGModerately Bullish1.34

DBModerately Bullish1.32

Key Issues for 2026

1.CAD appreciation mostly driven by USD weakness

2.USMCA risk manageable but adds uncertainty

3.Oil prices provide floor support

4.BoC near terminal

5.Housing market vulnerability persists

Analysis Summary

CAD faces mixed signals: USD weakness supports but domestic headwinds persist. USMCA risk manageable. Oil provides floor. USD/CAD to 1.36, more USD-driven than CAD-specific.

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.