Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesNeutral
USD/BRL
BRL carry attractive but October elections create binary risk. Prefer options ex
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
October elections
High carry
Fiscal uncertainty
BCB policy
Election volatility
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
JPMBullish5.55
BARCNeutral5.20
GSBullish5.20
ING5.20
MUFGModerately Bullish5.15
MSModerately Bullish5.10
BofAModerately Bullish5.10
DBBullish5.05
Analysis Summary
BRL carry attractive but October elections create binary risk. Prefer options exposure to manage tails. Fiscal trajectory uncertain.