Barclays
FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn
LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish
Back to CurrenciesBullish
AUD/USD
Commodity demand structural support
BARC Forecast Path
Cross-Firm Forecast Comparison
Key Drivers
RBA policy
Green transition
China outlook
Carry advantage
AUD/NZD dynamics
All Firm Targets (Dec '26)
INGVery Bullish0.7300
DBBullish0.7200
MSBullish0.7100
GSBullish0.7000
MUFGBullish0.7000
BofABullish0.7000
BARCBullish0.6900
JPMBullish0.6800
Key Issues for 2026
1.RBA higher for longer maintains carry
2.Green transition metals demand structural
3.China stabilization reduces tail risk
4.Prefer AUD over NZD for carry and commodity
5.Technical setup constructive
Analysis Summary
AUD benefits from RBA higher-for-longer, commodity demand tailwinds, and green transition metals. Prefer AUD over NZD for carry and commodity exposure. AUD/NZD upside expected. AUD/USD 0.69 target.